• Lizzie Charbonneau

Guesstimate: Percentage of Adults Who Perpetrate CSA

Updated: May 4

Taking a look at some existing stats, making several assumptions, and then crunching a bunch of numbers, I have made a guesstimate of the percentage of adults who perpetrate CSA.


Let's start with the existing stats:

Now the assumptions.

Based on "30% of adult offenders perpetrated against 10 or more children", I'm making the following guesses:

  • 30% of adult offenders perpetrate against 15 children on average

  • 30% of adult offenders perpetrate against 5 children on average

  • 40% of adult offenders perpetrate against 1 child on average

Now we do lots of math!


Let's say we have 1,000,000 people in the US.

220,000 are under 18.

1 in 5 -> 220,000/5 = 44,000 suffer CSA

60% -> 44,000*.6 = 26,400 suffer CSA at the hands of an adult


Let's say we have N adult perpetrators.

30% offend against 15 children; 30% offend against 5 children; 40% offend against 1 child ->

N*(.3*15 + .3*5 + .4) = 26,400

N*6.4 = 26,400

N = 4,125


In our population of 1,000,000, 780,000 are adults. 4,125 of those are offenders.

4,125/780,000 = .005 = .5% = 1 in 200


So my guesstimate is that 1 in 200 adults are perpetrators of CSA.

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